Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
